The Oil Drum | Peak Oil: Looking for the Wrong Symptoms?

If I were to ask 10 random people what they would expect would be a sign of the arrival of “peak oil”, I would expect that all 10 would say “high oil prices”.
Let me tell you what I think the symptoms of the arrival of peak oil are
1. Higher default rates on loans
2. Recession
Furthermore, I expect that as the supply of oil declines over time, these symptoms will get worse and worse—even though people may call the cause of the decline in oil use “Peak Demand” rather than “Peak Supply”.
This post is also published at Oil and Gas News.
Let’s think about what happens when oil prices try to increase. From the perspective of a consumer who is already spending pretty much all of his income, it seems to me the result is something like this:"  ... click post header for more...

Gail E. Tverberg

Gail E. Tverberg graduated from St. Olaf College in Northfield, Minnesota in 1968 with a B.S. in Mathematics. She received a M.S. in Mathematics from the University of Illinois, Chicago in 1970.
Ms. Tverberg is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and a Member of the American Academy of Actuaries. Much of her early career was spent with CNA Insurance Companies in Chicago, Illinois. There she was involved in both pricing and reserving of casualty insurance coverages. Her later career was spent with the Tillinghast business of Towers Perrin in Atlanta. At Towers Perrin, she performed consulting services, primarily for organizations writing medical malpractice insurance.
Ms. Tverberg began writing articles on finite world issues in early 2006. Her first article, discussing the reasons to expect oil shortages expected impact on the insurance industry, was published under the title "Oil Shortages: The Next Katrina?" in Emphasis Magazine, published by Tillinghast business of Towers Perrin.
More recently, in May 2007, she wrote the wrote the lead article in Contingencies Magazine, published by the American Academy of Actuaries titled Our Finite World: Implications for Actuaries
Since March 1, 2007, Ms. Tverberg has been working for Tverberg Actuarial Services on finite world issues. She is also a frequent contributor to the TheOilDrum.com website, under the name "Gail the Actuary". Her web articles have been published by TheOilDrum.com andEnergyBulletin.net. 


Gail often writes on energy-related websites under the name "Gail the Actuary" or "GailTheActuary"."